Breaking Down the Race to Qualify for the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals

Tennis superstars rarely run marathons (with the exception of Caroline Wozniacki), but it’s the most fitting sports parallel for the top men who endure the year-long race to qualify for the 2016 World Tour Finals.

They must grind from Australia’s summer heat in January to New York’s blazing nights in September, and along the way battle through Paris’ red clay and London’s slick grass.

By the time the U.S. Open ends in mid-September, tennis stars could be forgiven for hitting the proverbial wall, needing time to heal from injuries and the mental exhaustion of competing on the ATP tour.

In the 26.2 miles required to run a marathon, runners often meet their greatest trials of endurance in the final 6.2 miles where the difference between greatness and failure is measured. Willpower and training are most needed to push even the greatest competitors to the finish line.

Men’s tennis has now entered this home stretch, the race to place in the top eight of the rankings by early November—after the motivation of the Grand Slam season has been left in the dust—and the daunting distant travel to the Far East can take its toll.

Which of the top stars will be able to cruise to the tape, and which players must step faster to hold off the footsteps that are tramping closer behind?

Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka are already awarded the trip to London's WTF.

Race to London

The ATP rankings feature the Race to London on the home menu of ATP World Tour.

Unlike the momentary rankings that calculate each player’s points for the previous calendar year, the Race to London adds the tournament points each player gains since the start of 2016, needing to be filled with however many tournaments are left until November’s WTF in the English capital.

Only the top eight players in the rankings are selected for London. Here are the current standings as compiled by ATP World Tour on Twitter:

The results show that three stars have already crossed the finish line and can somewhat enjoy the recovery banquet and clap their hands for the next five elite.

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic has topped 10,000 points already, and even if he pulls out of competition to heal from nagging injuries, he will finish no lower than No. 2 by the end of the year.

Andy Murray had a terrific summer charge in winning Wimbledon and the Olympics gold medal in singles. He is over 2,000 points behindDjokovic, but if he wins a couple huge tournaments and the Serb is sidelined, he could finally track down his bigger rival.

Stan Wawrinka clinched his berth at the O2 Arena in London by winning the U.S. Open last week, but he’s competing at St. Petersburgin Russia with all the euphoria and momentum of a confident champion.

Surprisingly, Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori are hot on the heels ofWawrinka as the threesome dash to complete their marathon with all virtually a lock for London. They round out the top five considerably more consistent than their pursuers with their results in 2016.

Kei Nishikori (left) and Milos Raonic are locks to qualify for London.

Three Spots Remaining

The three final slots for London are currently held by Gael Monfils, Dominic Thiem and Rafael Nadal.

Only Monfils is playing anywhere near his best tennis, which is a bit surprising for the streaky talented Frenchman. But he’s been healthy and hot and, barring a collapse, should cross the finish line with one of the three remaining slots.

Thiem and Nadal are another matter. They have both been banged up with injuries, missed time and produced uneven play since the French Open. Not coincidentally, that came at the same time as the end of the clay-court season where the Austrian was a French Open semifinalist and the Spaniard won Monte Carlo and Barcelona. They invested a lot of their training and bodies to compete on their favorite surface, and neither has recovered his best form or optimum energy.

The Race to London is old hat for Nadal, who ended 2015 with a solid rise. Traditionally, though, it’s never been his best part of the season where the court surfaces are faster and when the grind of the yearly marathon racks his body.

Thiem is in the race for the first time, and the 23-year-old will have the enthusiasm and desire to compete over the next six weeks to qualify for London.

He’s the No. 1 seed this week at Metz, and he will need strong showings at Beijing, Shanghai and Paris if he is to cruise in for his medal. Maybe a semifinal showing at one of those venues will be enough to hold off his pursuers.

Professional Gael Monfils has his eye on London.

Trailing the Pack

Tomas Berdych and Marin Cilic trail Nadal for the coveted eight slot by about only 800 points.

Berdych was dealt a blow prior to the U.S. Open when he had to skip the tournament because of appendicitis. He needs to return to his best form, and, if he does, perhaps his legs will be fresh for the October run.

Cilic won his first career Masters 1000 title at Cincinnati in August, but he was upset early at the U.S. Open. He’s fully capable of scoring one of the big titles in Asia or Paris as long as he continues the excellent momentum he produced in Davis Cup competition to power his home country past France. He is great on fast surfaces, so a hot streak and a fading Thiem or Nadal could get him in as one of the elite eight.

Beyond that, David Goffin, Nick Kyrgios and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are all distant long shots, each needing an epic run of multiple titles if they are to elbow their way into contention. Goffin is the No. 2 seed at Metz, but the Belgian’s going to have to knock out bigger, powerful competitors on fast surfaces, which is unlikely.

Marin Cilic (left) is trailing the elite eight while Andy Murray is already in.

The Winners

The top eight listed above in the Race to London are strong enough favorites to have removed most of the drama from any potential photo finish. But pay attention to Thiem and Nadal to see if they will play with renewed energy and success. If so, the race will be over, and Berdychand Cilic will not catch them.

If there’s any slippage, especially if Nadal’s left wrist is still troublesome, give the nod to Cilic to grab the eighth slot. He’s got the strength, tools and composure for a great year-end streak, and if anyone above him drops out for one reason or another, the Croatian will be there at the end.

Running, anyone? After all, a marathon only takes a few hours. Tennis has the long and winding ride that runs through another six weeks to decide London. Wars have been fought in less time.

Novak Djokovic, Kei Nishikori set to meet in Rogers Cup final

TORONTO - Upon entering the stadium on Saturday night, Gael Monfils took a security wand and jokingly patted down his entourage.

It was as close to a circus performance as we’ve seen from the Frenchman known for being wildly entertaining on the court, if not lacking in focus. The 29-year-old world No. 14 seems to have left the sideshow shots behind, and in the process he might be winning over more hearts and minds — not to mention matches — than ever before.

But with Novak Djokovic as his competition, none of that really mattered. Despite Monfils’ dogged determination, the top-ranked Serb proved too much in their Rogers Cup semifinal under the lights, prevailing 6-3, 6-2, to land a spot in Sunday’s final.

Djokovic stands poised to hoist his fourth Rogers Cup title, which would be the most of any man not named Ivan Lendl. Djokovic last captured consecutive titles in 2011 and 2012 and also won in 2007.

World No. 6 Kei Nishikori of Japan has the unenviable task of trying to stop him on Centre Court at the Aviva Centre, having dispatched second-seeded Stan Wawrinka of Switzerland earlier in the day.

If Djokovic had lacked consistency earlier in the tournament, he believes he turned the corner against Monfils.

“I try to kind of open myself to whatever is coming my way and try to understand that each day is an opportunity to really right the wrongs from yesterday,” Djokovic said. “I have had previously these particular situations, circumstances where I wasn’t comfortable one day but next day it feels better.”

Both men put on an epic show for the capacity crowd early, with lengthy rallies distinguishing their match from many of the others. Monfils eliminated Canadian Milos Raonic the night prior and looked fresh despite his busy recent schedule, which included winning the biggest title of his career less than a week ago in Washington.

But after scoring an early break to go up 2-1 in the opener, Monfils failed to consolidate it. Djokovic broke right back, and converted on four of five break-point opportunities overall. Monfils had seven break chances, but could register only one, while winning just 28% of his second-serve points.

“For sure I’m not fresh, you know, like two weeks ago. That’s for sure,” Monfils said. “But, you know, you learn even when you are tired like this. Big match like this, you learn. And that’s great lesson for me for the next time I will play against him again.”

Djokovic, a 12-time Grand Slam champion, has won nine of 11 matches against Nishikori.

“The more success you’ve had against a player actually makes him more eager to come out and play his best tennis,” said Djokovic, who fired just one ace and finished with six double-faults, yet won easily against Monfils. “That’s why, for me, the kind of the mindset that I want to have, and one of the biggest priorities I have in mind is to come out with the right intensity and start well. I manage to get the control over the match and feel more comfortable and get that lead, I feel I have very good chance to hold the lead all the way through.”

In the earlier semifinal, Wawrinka pulled his shirt over his head in an attempt to hide from the world.

His opponent, Nishikori, flashed a big smile on Centre Court.

One man’s misery helped launch another’s success as the third-seeded Nishikori capitalized on an unlikely series of errors by the second-seeded Wawrinka for a 7-6 (6), 6-1 semifinal win that puts the Japanese sensation in position to capture his first Masters 1000-series title.

“I think he started much better tennis first couple games, especially. He was hitting very good serves and very aggressive,” said Nishikori, who improved to 2-3 against Wawrinka. “Well, yeah, until 5-3 game (in the first set).”

Midway through the second set of their match, Wawrinka botched a sure-fire high backhand from at the net as Nishikori stood still on his side of the court, having conceded the point.

Try as he did, the Swiss world No. 5 could not escape hearing the gasps let out from the crowd, which heaped support toward both players throughout the afternoon.

“Just missed an easy shot on the match, that’s it,” Wawrinka said. “You don’t feel good on the court when you miss that kind of shot. At the end of the day, we can all miss easy shots. I was already quite down in the second set. I’m quite disappointed.”

It was simply a forgettable day for Wawrinka, who had a chance to win the first-set tiebreak on serve at 6-5, but double-faulted. On the next point, Wawrinka’s shot ricocheted off the net cord and out of play, and his forehand error on the clinching point was truly untimely.

Nishikori simply stuck it out after losing his serve in the fourth game, then watched his opponent implode.

Kei Nishikori

Kei Nishikori will be hoping to put an inconsistent season behind him with an improved showing at Wimbledon.

The Japanese player has suffered form and fitness issues throughout 2016, with his highlight being a second career Masters final with his run in Miami.

As well as running into the world's best on frequent occasions, injuries have hampered his hopes, most recently forcing him to withdraw from Halle and hindering his French Open fourth round defeat to Richard Gasquet.

In January at the Australian Open, the first Grand Slam of 2016, Nishikori fell at the quarter-final stage, one of four defeats to world number one Djokovic this season.

His best Grand Slam result remains a 2014 runners-up spot at the US Open and at Wimbledon he has never gone beyond the fourth round with last year's bid ended by a calf injury in the second round.

Murray into Rome final, awaits winner of Djokovic-Nishikori

The world number three comfortably beat Lucas Pouille 6-2, 6-1 in a rain-interrupted semi-final on Centre Court on Saturday.

Andy Murray can't remember if he has ever won a match on his birthday, but the British second seed is hoping to make Sunday's celebrations memorable with amaiden Rome Masters title.

The 28-year-old cruised into his maiden final in the Italian capital after sweeping lucky loser Lucas Pouille aside 6-2, 6-1 in a rain-interrupted semi-final on Centre Court on Saturday.

The Scot remains on course to meet world number one Novak Djokovic if he overcomes Japan's Kei Nishikori in their semi-final later on Saturday, a week after the Serbian beat Murray in the Madrid final.

"I'd love to win tomorrow's final and get another Masters title on the clay and my first title here," said Murray, who claimed his maiden clay-court title in April last year in Munich and his maiden Masters title on the surface soon after with victory in Madrid.

"I haven't won many matches on my birthday before. I don't remember winning any, which isn't a good sign. Hopefully tomorrow that will change."

Djokovic leads their ongoing 32-game ATP rivalry 23-9, and none of Murray's wins have come on the red dirt.

But Murray's clay court game has been progressing this year. Beating Djokovic will be a tall order, especially after the Serbian buried any doubts over his form in the lead up to the French Open with a convincing quarter-final win over Rafael Nadalon Friday.

Murray suffered defeat to Nadal in the semi-finals of Monte Carlo last month and, although he brushed off suggestions Djokovic is not on top of his game, he is hoping to make his 29th birthday one to remember.

After facing statistically weaker opposition in the shape of Belgian David Goffin in the quarters, then lucky loser Pouille in the semis, Murray will have to step up his game significantly if he is to beat Djokovic for the first time in a clay court final.

The pair's rivalry stretches back more than 10 years, since well before they were fledgling professionals, and they are known to have a strong and friendly relationship off the court.

Djokovic has shown some chinks in his armour in Rome, notably losing a first set 6-0 to Brazilian Tomaz Bellucci on Thursday before turning the match around to cruise into the quarter-finals.

Again, on Friday, the Serbian admitted he struggled at the start of both sets before fighting his way back into the game to beat seven-time Rome champion Nadal 7-5, 7-6 (7/4).

Serena Williams celebrates after defeating Irina-Camelia Begu. ETTORE FERRARI (EFE)

But the numbers speak for themselves, and Murray said: "Maybe he hasn't started some tournaments well. I saw a little bit of yesterday's match, and it was a very good level. I think Novak is playing extremely well this year. He's winning and that's a sign of someone who's very confident."

A win would be welcome, but Murray said that simply the prospect of a three-set Masters final with Djokovic can only boost what he believes has been a good preparation for the French Open.

"Any time you play the best players it's great," added Murray. "The French Open starts in a fortnight and you don't get any better preparation for that than playing the best players in the world. My preparation has gone extremely well leading up to Roland Garros."

In the WTA draw, three-time champion Serena Williams set up an all-American final at the Italian Open with a comfortable 6-4, 6-1 semi-final win over Romanian Irina-Camelia Begu on Saturday.

Williams, the top seed, will now meet unseeded compatriot Madison Keys, 21, after she beat Spain's third seed Garbiñe Muguruza 7-6, 6-4 earlier.

The 34-year-old Williams has won three titles in the Italian capital, in 2002, 2013 and 2014.

Her bid for a fourth crown last year was ended after her first match when she pulled out of the tournament with an elbow injury.

Novak Djokovic defeats Kei Nishikori for sixth Miami Open title

Novak Djokovic beat Kei Nishikori in straight sets to win the Miami Open for a record-equalling sixth time.

The world number one matched Andre Agassi's Miami tally with a 6-3 6-3 triumph in one hour and 26 minutes.

Djokovic, 28, also moves ahead of Rafael Nadal with a record 28 Masters tournament wins in his career.

"It's quite amazing," said the Serb. "I'm very thrilled about it and hopefully I can make many more records."

He also becomes the first man to win the Indian Wells-Miami double three years in a row, and surpasses Roger Federer as the ATP's leading prize money winner on $98.2m (£69m).

'It's tough to find his weakness'

Japan's Nishikori broke serve in the opening game but was broken straight back, and after a scrappy start to the match Djokovic took charge from 4-3.

He won four games in a row to move a break up in the second set and broke for a fifth time to win the match.

"I thought he started very well, breaking my serve in the first game and coming up with some aggressive play," said Djokovic.

"I needed to answer right back, which I did in the following game - that helped me mentally."

Nishikori, 26, said: "It's tough to find his weakness, honestly. The biggest thing is he has great defence and it's tough to open up the space.

"I had a couple of strategies before the match, but I don't think I did them well enough to beat him today."

French Open the next target

Djokovic has only one loss to his name in 29 matches this year - and that was a retirement with an eye infection in Dubai.

With 11 Grand Slam titles, the Serb is already among the very best ever to have played the game - and catching Federer's record tally of 17 majors is in his thoughts.

"Of course it is in the back of my mind somewhere but I don't have that as a main motivation, because it can present some kind of distraction that I don't need," he said.

The next few months could go a long way to making his case as he gets the chance to land the two biggest titles to have eluded him - the French Open and Olympic gold.

"I don't feel too exhausted," he said. "I don't think I will have any difficulty to make the transition to the clay courts quickly. Let's see what happens.

"Clay courts are the most physically demanding surface, so also looking at the big picture, the French Open is the biggest goal that I have on the clay courts. I'll try to adjust to that tournament as well."

ATP Acapulco: Top Seeds David Ferrer, Kei Nishikori Ousted

Top seed David Ferrer and second seed Kei Nishikori were upset victims at the Abierto Mexicano Telcel on Wednesday. Alexandr Dolgopolov stunned the top seed with a dazzling display that sends him through to the quarterfinals.

Dolgpolov Flogs Ferrer

The Abierto Mexicano Telcel is left with just three seeded players are an upset-laden Wednesday saw the top two seeds fall. Alexandr Dolgopolov scored the first stunner as he beat top seed David Ferrer for just the third time in eleven tries. Dolgopolov dropped his first service game to hand Ferrer a quick 2-0 lead, but the Ukrainian didn't flinch as he broke back to get back on serve in the next game. From there, Dolgopolov would not be troubled on serve as the Spaniard was constantly fighting to stay in his own service games. Ferrer fought off three break points in a testy 7th game, but could not save a 5th break point in the 9th game to see Dolgopolov lead 5-4. The "Dog" would serve out the set at 6-4.

The second set saw both players survive a pair of break points in their second service games as the score eased out to 2-2. Another exchange of holds would see the score at 3-3 when Dolgopolov made the huge breakthrough to secure a 4-3 lead. He would consolidate, but need four match points to put Ferrer away in the final game. Dolgopolov would close the set and match with a 6-4 win in the set.

For the match, Dolgopolov was in control from the baseline as he whipped 22 winners. Following the match, the Ukrainian said that he never felt any pressure in the match, “I think I was quite calm. I was happy I’m on court because I was injured last week. That was the key I think. I played relaxed and the pressure was more on him. I was aggressive and went for my shots. They were the key points."

Querrey Squashes Nishikori

The second big upset of the night came when red hot Sam Querreysmashed second seed Kei Nishikori 6-4, 6-3. Nishikori struggled from the opening ball as he would crack on his first service game to give the Delray Beach champion a fast 2-0 lead. Querrey settled into a good rhythm over the next three service games to cruise to a 5-3 lead. With the set on his racquet though, the pressure caught him as Nishikori amped up his return game to break the American at-love. The tide would not turn however as the second seed would struggle on serve in an attempt to even the set. Querrey would break back to close out the set. Nishikori rarely touched the Querrey first serve in the set with the American winning 13 of 16 points. The second seed fought to find his consistency on serve in the set, only landing 50 percent of his first serves. That allowed Querrey to take some key points on second serves.

In the second set, Nishikori was under the gun immediately. After a quick Querrey hold, the second seed fell behind in his service game again as he could not land first serves. Nishikori would be broken in a familiar pattern as he landed just 40 percent of his first serves in the set. Querrey would take 11 of 21 second serve points in the second. Querrey combined that with a stellar first serve that dominated to win 15 of 16 points to carry the American to his 7th straight victory. The win also broke a four game losing streak to Nishikori for the American, who had lost to Japan's top man at the Memphis Open earlier this month.

Thiem, Tomic and Dimitrov Avoid Trouble

The other three seeds in action on Wednesday were able to advance. Fourth seed Dominic Thiem had a battle on his hands with Dmitry Tursunov. The Russian took an early break lead in the first set, but Thiem fought back to get on serve and force a tiebreak. The Austrian would fall behind a set though as the Russian took the break 7-5. Thiem settled in quickly in the second as his serve was solid, allowing him to find an opening where be would break the Russian at-love in game six. Thiem would roar back to take the second 6-3 and close the match 6-4 in the third set. The fourth seed's first serve was a huge weapon in securing the win as he won 42 of 52 points.

Fifth seed Bernard Tomic found himself down early to Adrian Mannarino in second round action. The Aussie would bounce back from an early break though as he won six of the last eight games in the opening set. Tomic would be in control from there for a 6-4, 6-4 win. Grigor Dimitrov struggled early in his match against Donald Young, but was able to save six out of six break points in the opening set.

That left him waiting for an opportunity, which he found in the 8th game, to break Young to take a 5-3 lead. Dimitrov would close out the set in the next game 6-3. The second set would see the two exchange breaks within the first four games. Dimitrov would add a second break in game five that provided him with the decisive margin to work his way into the quarterfinals with a 6-3, 6-4 win.

Fritz Leads Other Winners

Among the other three winners on the day, American Taylor Fritz continued to stand out. The 18-year-old qualifier flew past Victor Estrella Burgos 6-1, 6-3. Fritz won 58 percent of the points off of the Dominican's serve, breaking him five times. Fellow American Ryan Harrison blew a golden opportunity to get to an ATP 500 level quarterfinal. Harrison was up a break in the third, but could not finish the job as Illya Marchenko rallied to win 7-6 (3), 4-6, 7-6 (5).Robin Haase also advanced to the quarterfinals in a three set grinder against Aljaz Bedene. The Dutchman prevailed in a tight match 6-4, 6-7 (3), 6-4.

Thursday's Quarterfinals

Play is scheduled to begin with 5th seed Bernard Tomic taking on Illya Marchenko in the first quarterfinal. The most anticipated match will be third up on Cancha Central with 4th seed Dominic Thiem and 7th seed Grigor Dimitrov going head-to-head for the first time. The night finishes with an All-American match pitting Taylor Fritz against Sam Querrey.

Sam Querrey upsets Kei Nishikori at Mexican tennis

Kei Nishikori, who was coming off a title run at Memphis less than two weeks ago, bombed out of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel, losing 6-4, 6-3 to Sam Querrey in Mexico City on Wednesday.

Querrey advanced to his third straight ATP Tour quarter-finals where he will face American teenager Taylor Fritz.

It is the first time in four tournaments this season that Japan's Nishikori has not reached at least the quarter-finals.

"It's always hard when you play against good players, but it wasn't my day today," the second seeded Nishikori said.

"There were many things that I should do better, especially my serve.

"I wasn’t aggressive enough to beat Sam today. Also he was hitting really big serves so there weren't many chances for my return game."

Nishikori's ouster means the tournament is without its top two seeds after David Ferrer's earlier loss to Alexandr Dolgopolov.